About Few Winners
Few Winners is the public log of one Belgian investor. I invest my own money by fixed rules and show every month how that compares with the S&P 500. Including when I am behind.
The idea behind the name
The name has two meanings, and both shape how I invest.
Markets with few winners. Some markets only have room for one, two or three players. Almost every card payment runs through Visa or Mastercard. Almost every bond gets a rating from S&P or Moody's. The machines for the most advanced chips all come from ASML. Companies like these can raise prices without losing customers, and it shows in their margins.
Stock markets with few winners. Research by professor Hendrik Bessembinder showed that about 4% of all US stocks since 1926 produced all of the stock market's net wealth creation. Most stocks did no better than Treasury bills. Returns come from a small number of companies.
The split
| Sleeve | Weight | What |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 50% | iShares Core S&P 500 (SXR8), bought every month |
| Few winners | 40% | Monopolies, duopolies and oligopolies with top-tier numbers |
| Future winners | 10% | Smaller, profitable growers that could become tomorrow's giants |
The rules
- Quality first. The company dominates its market, with high margins, high return on capital, plenty of free cash flow and revenue that grows every year. If that stops, it is out.
- Then the price. I only buy when the price-to-earnings ratio is at least 15% below the company's own 5-year average. That is the buy zone.
- Otherwise the index. If nothing is in the buy zone, my monthly deposit goes to the S&P 500.
- Once a year I check for each company whether revenue is growing, margins are holding and the market position is intact. Two noes means I sell.
One caveat I keep an eye on: the 5-year average runs from 2021 to 2025, and stocks were unusually expensive in 2021. That makes the buy zone somewhat wider than it should be, so I always ask why a stock is cheap.
How this site works
Every week there is an article about one company: what its moat is, what the numbers say, what can go wrong and whether it is in the buy zone. The articles are drafted with the help of AI, based on annual reports and quarterly results, and reviewed by me before they go live. The shortlist is updated weekly.
Not advice
I am not a financial adviser. This site is not investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell anything. I own, or plan to buy, the stocks I write about. Do your own research: you can lose money.