Shortlist
Every company that passes my rules, plus a watchlist. The status is calculated: price-to-earnings against the company's own 5-year average.
Updated November 12, 2026
Few winners 26
| Company | Market position | Growth | P/E | 5-yr avg | Difference | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fair Isaac FICONYSE Big discount for a reason: US mortgage rules now also allow VantageScore. Source |
Near-monopoly in US credit scores | +24% | 15.5 | 41.2 | -62% | Buy zone |
| Hermès RMSEuronext Paris Growth has nearly stalled on weak demand from China. Source |
Top-tier luxury, near-monopoly on Birkin and Kelly | +1% | 29.0 | 50.2 | -42% | Buy zone |
| Booking Holdings BKNGNasdaq Risk: AI assistants that book trips themselves. Source |
Online travel oligopoly with Expedia and Airbnb | +8% | 13.7 | 21.9 | -37% | Buy zone |
| Intuitive Surgical ISRGNasdaq | Near-monopoly in surgical robots | +22% | 40.0 | 60.7 | -34% | Buy zone |
| Synopsys SNPSNasdaq Growth inflated by the Ansys acquisition; return on capital not yet checked. Source |
Chip-design software duopoly with Cadence | +42% | 25.6 | 37.3 | -31% | Buy zone |
| MSCI MSCINYSE | Index oligopoly with S&P and FTSE Russell | +12% | 28.5 | 40.5 | -30% | Buy zone |
| Idexx Laboratories IDXXNasdaq | Veterinary diagnostics duopoly | +13% | 35.7 | 50.7 | -30% | Buy zone |
| Eli Lilly LLYNYSE Prices are falling (−15% in Q3); heavily reliant on one drug class. Source |
GLP-1 obesity and diabetes duopoly with Novo Nordisk | +39% | 28.9 | 40.2 | -28% | Buy zone |
| ASML ASMLEuronext Amsterdam Cyclical: orders can drop sharply for a year. Source |
Monopoly in EUV lithography | +55% | 24.9 | 34.6 | -28% | Buy zone |
| RELX RENEuronext Amsterdam Trailing P/E. Growth in pounds depressed by currency; AI is the big risk. Source |
Scientific and legal information oligopoly | +1% | 22.2 | 30.5 | -27% | Buy zone |
| Cadence CDNSNasdaq | Chip-design software duopoly with Synopsys | +22% | 34.0 | 45.1 | -25% | Buy zone |
| Moody's MCONYSE Growth stalled in Q3 2026; ratings revenue fell 1%. Source |
Ratings duopoly with S&P Global | +1% | 26.9 | 34.1 | -21% | Buy zone |
| S&P Global SPGINYSE | Ratings duopoly with Moody's; indices | +7% | 24.1 | 30.3 | -20% | Buy zone |
| Safran SAFEuronext Paris Just short of the buy zone (−14%). Source |
Narrowbody-engine duopoly (CFM with GE) vs Pratt & Whitney | +13% | 23.3 | 27.1 | -14% | Fair |
| Ferrari RACENYSE / Milaan Trailing P/E. Source |
Luxury brand without a real rival | – | 38.1 | 43.5 | -12% | Fair |
| Microsoft MSFTNasdaq | Cloud and office-software oligopoly | – | 26.5 | 29.5 | -10% | Fair |
| Mastercard MANYSE | Card-network duopoly with Visa | +14% | 29.4 | 32.5 | -10% | Fair |
| Waste Management WMNYSE | US landfill oligopoly with Republic Services | +6% | 27.5 | 27.5 | 0% | Fair |
| Linde LINNYSE | Industrial-gas oligopoly | +9% | 27.0 | 26.7 | +1% | Fair |
| Cintas CTASNasdaq | US uniform-rental oligopoly | – | 39.0 | – | – | Average unknown |
| Edwards Lifesciences EWNYSE | Heart-valve (TAVR) duopoly with Medtronic | – | 31.5 | – | – | Average unknown |
| Games Workshop GAWLSE | Near-monopoly in tabletop wargaming (Warhammer) | – | 26.0 | – | – | Average unknown |
| SAP SAPXetra | Enterprise software (ERP) oligopoly | – | 26.5 | – | – | Average unknown |
| Visa VNYSE | Card-network duopoly with Mastercard | +13% | 28.1 | 26.4 | +6% | Expensive |
| Republic Services RSGNYSE | US landfill oligopoly with Waste Management | +8% | 31.6 | 29.3 | +8% | Expensive |
| Air Liquide AIEuronext Paris | Industrial-gas oligopoly | +3% | 25.5 | 23.6 | +8% | Expensive |
Future winners 6
| Company | Market position | Growth | P/E | 5-yr avg | Difference | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duolingo DUOLNasdaq P/E from before the 27% jump after Q3 results. Source |
The world's largest language-learning app | +14% | 54.6 | – | – | Average unknown |
| Lagercrantz LAGR BStockholm +12% organic growth, the strongest of the Swedish acquirers. Source |
Buys and builds Nordic niche companies | +22% | 32.5 | – | – | Average unknown |
| Lumine Group LMNTSXV Almost all growth from acquisitions. Source |
Buys telecom software (Constellation family) | +28% | 16.8 | – | – | Average unknown |
| Topicus.com TOITSXV Organic growth only ~4%; the rest comes from acquisitions. Source |
Buys European vertical software (Constellation family) | +19% | 19.8 | – | – | Average unknown |
| TransMedics TMDXNasdaq Smallest and most volatile position. Source |
System that keeps donor organs alive in transit | +41% | 43.7 | – | – | Average unknown |
| Wise WISELSE | Lowest-cost network for international transfers | +21% | 19.7 | – | – | Average unknown |
Watchlist 8
| Company | Market position | Growth | P/E | 5-yr avg | Difference | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adyen ADYENEuronext Amsterdam Margin target cut in October 2026; waiting for new targets in February 2027. Source |
Payments platform; rival Stripe is larger | +23% | 19.5 | – | – | Average unknown |
| Nvidia NVDANasdaq Cyclical; already ~7% of the S&P 500. Source |
Dominant in AI chips, but customers' own chips are gaining | +106% | 19.5 | – | – | Average unknown |
| Novo Nordisk NOVO BKopenhagen Cheap, but 2026 sales −2% to +2% and big price cuts in 2027. Back after two quarters of growth. Source |
Duopoly with Eli Lilly, but losing share | +4% | 10.0 | 24.0 | -58% | Out |
| Zoetis ZTSNYSE 2026 guidance cut; growth has nearly stalled. Source |
Number 1 in animal health | +2% | 13.1 | 31.4 | -58% | Out |
| Dassault Systèmes DSYEuronext Paris Growth has stalled. Source |
Design software (CAD/PLM) oligopoly | 0% | 15.0 | 31.7 | -53% | Out |
| Wolters Kluwer WKLEuronext Amsterdam Reported revenue flat; AI risk. Source |
Tax, health and legal information oligopoly | 0% | 15.7 | 25.1 | -37% | Out |
| Airbus AIREuronext Paris A duopoly, but margins (~9%) too low for my rules. Source |
Large-jet duopoly with Boeing | +7% | 25.0 | 22.6 | +11% | Out |
| Alphabet GOOGLNasdaq Free cash flow temporarily ~4% of revenue due to AI capex. Source |
Near-monopoly in search; YouTube; cloud | – | 20.7 | – | – | Out |
P/E = price divided by expected earnings. Buy zone = at least 15% below its own average. Fair = up to 5% above. For 'Future winners' growth matters more than the P/E. Figures are checked weekly; always check for yourself before you buy.
For comparison: the S&P 500 trades at ~21.5x expected earnings.